Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,327,009$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,054,808.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,054,808.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $189,653$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,203.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(174,203.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,778,245$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $642,860$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{722,933.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 125.2)}}\) (asimptote \(722,933.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $68,484$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,288.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 109.7)}}\) (asimptote \(73,288.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,235$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $98,407$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,721.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.5)}}\) (asimptote \(116,721.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,107$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(91.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,784.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 143.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,784.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,549$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $135,757$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,867.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 63.5)}}\) (asimptote \(120,867.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,203$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,960.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,960.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,134$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,218$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,361.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.9)}}\) (asimptote \(68,361.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,034$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(79.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,354.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 125.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,354.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,911$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $100,131$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,313.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.4)}}\) (asimptote \(126,313.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,889$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(163 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,902.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,902.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,447$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,721$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,325.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 126.0)}}\) (asimptote \(85,325.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,890$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,008.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,008.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,369$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,511$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(891 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,156.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 125.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,156.1\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $765$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(23.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{856.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(856.3\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,284$ on 2020-09-08
